Win Probability Simulator
The Win Probability Simulator is a match-prep tool that estimates your team's win rate for a hypothetical game based on bans, map, and composition. Use it to model opponent draft choices, test composition ideas, and identify which bans hurt your team the most before you step into a scrim or match.
The simulator is available to Premium subscribers. You can find it under the Simulator tab on the team stats page.
Prerequisites
The simulator runs against your team's historical scrim data, so it needs at least one scrim's worth of data to render. If no game data exists for the selected time period, the tab shows a placeholder:
No game data available for the selected time period. Play some scrims to unlock the simulator.
Upload a scrim or widen your time range to get started.
Layout
The Simulator tab uses a two-column layout.
- Scenario Setup on the left lets you configure the hypothetical match.
- Predicted Win Rate on the right shows the output and a factor-by-factor breakdown.
Scenario Setup
Configure the match you want to model. All inputs are optional, leaving fields empty simply excludes that factor from the prediction.
Enemy Bans
Enter up to four heroes the opposing team has banned against you. The simulator compares these against your team's historical performance when those heroes are unavailable.
Your Team's Bans
Enter up to four heroes your team plans to ban. The simulator uses this to factor in how much you're limiting the opponent's options.
Map
Pick a map from the dropdown. Maps are grouped by mode, Control, Escort, Hybrid, Flashpoint, Push, and Clash, and the dropdown is searchable, so you can type a map name to jump straight to it.
Compositions
Enter up to five heroes for your team composition and up to five heroes for the enemy team composition. The simulator evaluates how each composition matches up against the other on the selected map.
Reset
The Reset button clears every input and returns the simulator to a blank state.
Predicted Win Rate
Once you have inputs configured, the right column updates with a prediction.
Headline Output
- Predicted win rate: a large percentage showing the estimated likelihood that your team wins this scenario.
- Confidence badge: High, Medium, or Low, based on how much data supports the prediction. Lower confidence means the estimate is drawn from a smaller or less consistent sample.
- Delta vs. baseline: how this scenario compares to your team's baseline win rate
(for example,
+2.5% vs. basemeans this scenario is 2.5 points better than your overall average).
Insight Callout
An insight callout highlights the single biggest factor driving the prediction, the ban, map, or composition choice that moves the needle most in either direction.
Breakdown
The Breakdown section lists each factor's contribution to the final prediction, shown with colored bars and trend icons:
- Base rate: your team's baseline win rate before any scenario adjustments.
- Enemy bans: how the opponent's bans shift your expected win rate.
- Our bans: how your bans shift the prediction.
- Map: how your team historically performs on the selected map.
- Compositions: how the matchup of your comp against theirs affects the outcome.
Positive contributions push the prediction up; negative contributions pull it down.
Sample Size Warning
When the underlying sample size is small, a warning appears (for example, Based on N maps). Treat low-sample predictions as directional rather than definitive, the fewer games backing a scenario, the more room there is for noise.
How Coaches Use It
- Draft prep: model what the opponent is likely to ban and see which of your team's strengths they're trying to erase.
- Composition testing: try out comp ideas before running them in a scrim to see whether the historical matchup data supports them.
- Ban priority: flip bans in and out to find the combination that shifts your win rate the most, then bring that priority list into the match.
- Map veto: compare predictions across maps to see where you have the strongest edge against a given opponent profile.